Good Judgement Project

a large scale experiment in forecasting run by Tetlock
about 2000 individuals were trained and their forecasting abilities were measured
the results
- people can be trained to become better at forecasting the future
- foxes make better forecasters than hedgehogs
- hedgehogs make predictions based on what “they see as a fundamental truths”
  - they know a few big things
  - new information is most likely discarded
- foxes are guided by different truths and ideas
  - they know lots of little things
  - new information will lead to adjusting of forecast