- a large scale experiment in forecasting run by Tetlock
- about 2000 individuals were trained and their forecasting abilities were measured
- the results
- people can be trained to become better at forecasting the future
- foxes make better forecasters than hedgehogs
- hedgehogs make predictions based on what “they see as a fundamental truths”
- they know a few big things
- new information is most likely discarded
- foxes are guided by different truths and ideas
- they know lots of little things
- new information will lead to adjusting of forecast
Good Judgement Project