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Good Judgement Project

  • a large scale experiment in forecasting run by Tetlock
  • about 2000 individuals were trained and their forecasting abilities were measured
  • the results
    • people can be trained to become better at forecasting the future
    • foxes make better forecasters than hedgehogs
    • hedgehogs make predictions based on what “they see as a fundamental truths”
      • they know a few big things
      • new information is most likely discarded
    • foxes are guided by different truths and ideas
      • they know lots of little things
      • new information will lead to adjusting of forecast

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